Meanwhile, all seven prominent agricultural commodities turned green, leading the overall market’s rise. At the close, the buying force dominated, pushing the MXV-Index up 0.9% to 2,168 points.
Coffee prices rebounded strongly at the end of the week
Last week, the global coffee market witnessed many fluctuations with alternating rising and falling sessions. By the close of the trading session at the end of the week, Arabica coffee prices narrowed their decline from the earlier sessions of the week, rising 3.51% to USD 7,885/ton. However, over the course of the entire week, the price still dropped 2.19% compared to the previous week. Similarly, at the close of trading on Friday (April 11), Robusta coffee prices surged to USD 5,099/ton, recovering from the lowest levels since January this year.
The price movements of coffee last week showed a strong decline at the beginning of the week, followed by a recovery and a surge at the end. The market temporarily calmed down after the announcement by US President Donald Trump about imposing a 10% tariff and delaying the tariff implementation for most countries for 90 days. However, the tariff tensions still led some coffee importers in the US to ask Vietnamese exporters to delay shipments and limit signing new contracts. The US is currently the third-largest market for Vietnam’s raw coffee, accounting for about 8.6% of total export turnover, after the European Union (41%) and Japan (8.2%).
Meanwhile, a report from Cecafe showed that Brazil’s raw coffee exports in March reached 2.95 million bags, down 26.4% compared to the same period last year. By the end of Q1, Brazil had exported a total of 9.58 million bags, a decrease of 14%. Similarly, preliminary statistics from the Vietnam Customs Department also recorded a significant 15.6% drop in Vietnam’s coffee exports for this quarter. The export supply from the two largest coffee producers in the world has significantly decreased compared to last year, and the market forecasts that the supply tightness will continue in the near future.
The selling force dominated the industrial raw materials market during the past trading week. Notably, rubber prices took a sharp dive, pulling the entire sector’s price index down. The RSS3 Osaka rubber ended the week with a deep 7.63% drop, closing at USD 2,066/ton. TSR20 rubber also plummeted by 6.56%, closing at USD 1,695/ton. Especially, during the first trading session on Monday (April 7), both rubber contracts recorded record drops: RSS3 Osaka plunged by 8.1%, and TSR20 Singapore lost 10.09%, marking the lowest level in more than a year.
According to the China Automobile Association, the country’s car exports could face more pressure than expected this year due to the impact of the US increasing tariffs. This could lead to a significant reduction in the demand for rubber, a key material in the automotive manufacturing industry, in the near future.
Soybean prices saw their biggest weekly increase since 2022
Contrary to the mixed trend of the overall commodity market, the agricultural market maintained an upward price trend throughout the past trading week. At the close, all seven prominent commodities showed positive results. Among them, some commodities saw notable price increases: corn rose by 6.5%; soybean meal increased by nearly 6%, and CBOT wheat rose by 5%. Soybean prices rose the most by 6.7%, marking the strongest weekly gain since July 2022.
According to MXV, the combination of several supporting factors such as stable exports, US trade policy adjustments, and supply disruption risks in South America significantly supported soybean prices during the week.
The first key factor supporting soybean prices is the continued positive export activity from the US. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export shipment report indicated that shipments totaled more than 805,000 tons during the week, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. Additionally, the USDA announced a sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown buyer, the first such sale since March, signaling stable demand for US soybeans despite prolonged tariff tensions.
The US trade policy continues to be a major factor influencing market sentiment. The Trump administration’s tariff reductions for over 70 countries have boosted hopes of new trade agreements, especially in the agricultural sector. Although tensions with China remain unresolved, the market responded positively to the prospects of expanding exports to other partners.
Additionally, the strike at the Rosario port cluster in Argentina, the country’s largest soybean export hub, disrupted the global flow of goods. This factor raised concerns among investors about potential short-term supply shortages, contributing to buying pressure in the market last week.
Finally, the USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed a slight reduction in US soybean stocks to 375 million bushels, while global stocks increased only marginally. Despite the neutral effect of the report, the increasing demand for oilseed extraction and lower-than-expected US stocks helped to bolster the upward price trend.